Donald Trump has a special affinity for William McKinley, the former American president who was struck down by an assassin69传媒檚 bullet in 1901, ending his second term before it really began. Trump has called his distant predecessor a 69传媒済reat but highly underrated69传媒 chief executive who made the United States wealthy by slapping tariffs on foreign goods. Whether or not this description is accurate, Trump genuinely believes it. Indeed, Trump feels so strongly about the man that he restored the name 69传媒淢ount McKinley69传媒 to America69传媒檚 highest peak during his first day in office.
Yet by the looks of it, Trump has more in common with another U.S. president who held court more than two centuries ago: James Monroe. While Monroe might not be in the same league as the George Washington69传媒檚 and Abraham Lincoln69传媒檚 of the world, he is best known for establishing the so-called Monroe Doctrine, which was designed to keep the Europeans out of the Western Hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine has since been used as a shorthand for maintaining U.S. dominance in Latin America by ensuring no strategic competitors are able to get a permanent foothold in the region.
Trump, though, has taken the spirit of the Monroe Doctrine to the next level. He not only wants to keep China out; he aims to flaunt American power and coerce Washington69传媒檚 allies and partners in the Western Hemisphere to meet his demands. The first two weeks of Trump69传媒檚 presidency have been filled with bombastic threats of tariffs, sanctions and even military action if countries on the receiving end don69传媒檛 submit. Whether it69传媒檚 trying to convince Canada to become the 51st state, pressuring Denmark to sell Greenland to the United States or proclaiming that Panama Canal will soon be American property again, Trump69传媒檚 browbeating has caused an immense amount of heartburn in the U.S. foreign policy establishment, which tends to view coercion over friendly states as bad optics and even worse policy.
But at the risk of stirring up a hornet69传媒檚 nest, Trump69传媒檚 tactics are actually working 69传媒 so far. The tantrums on social media and stern, tough-guy prose from behind the resolute desk are getting results and moving various countries to cater to his whims or reassess their previous positions.
The examples are endless, even if Trump has only been in office for a few weeks. The most dramatic case study occurred this week, when Trump signed two executive orders instituting a tariff regime on goods entering the United States from Canada and Mexico in response to what the White House argues is an uncontrollable scourge of migrants and drugs coming from those countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum denounced Trump69传媒檚 tariffs and instituted equivalent tariffs of their own but also agreed to sit down with Trump to negotiate a way forward. The result was more patrols from Mexican and Canadian law enforcement along America69传媒檚 southern and northern borders to combat fentanyl smuggling. Trump pocketed the concessions and agreed to suspend the tariffs for 30 days.
Mexico and Canada are hardly the only instances where Trump69传媒檚 bullying tactics have gotten the other side to back down. Last week, after Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to allow two U.S. military flights full of Colombian deportees to land, Trump blew a gasket and ordered his team to execute a 25% tax on Colombian goods entering the United States. Seeing that such measures would hurt the Colombian economy (the U.S. is Colombia69传媒檚 largest trading partner), Petro backed down and agreed to take in the migrants. Trump crowed about it in public the next day.
Panama, too, is on the receiving end of Trump69传媒檚 ire. Trump has long alleged that the strategic, man-made waterway linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans is controlled by China, in violation of the 1977 treaty handing the canal over to Panama. In reality, Trump69传媒檚 allegations are false. A Hong Kong-based firm does, however, operate two ports on each side of the canal.
While it69传媒檚 difficult to believe Trump would order the 82nd Airborne to take back the Panama Canal by force, the Panamanian government appears sufficiently scared of the prospect and is thus willing to work with Washington on the issue. After Secretary of State Marco Rubio69传媒檚 visit to the Central American country, Panamanian President Jos茅 Ra煤l Mulino agreed to pull his country out of China69传媒檚 Belt and Road infrastructure initiative earlier than anticipated and ordered an audit of the Hong Kong port operator. Rubio bragged about the deal as yet another early Trump administration foreign policy victory, although whether all of this will be enough to satisfy Trump is still in question.
The record, therefore, is that Trump69传媒檚 preference for sticks over carrots is eliciting positive results for the United States 69传媒 or at least results that make Trump look good.
Yet none of this should be misconstrued as an endorsement of Trump69传媒檚 tactics. Sometimes tough-talk and coercion is necessary to attain foreign policy goals; it69传媒檚 as natural in international relations as diplomacy, and frequently the two go hand-in-hand. But if not played properly, short-term gains could turn into long-term losses. Even small countries have their pride and domestic constituencies. Depending on Trump69传媒檚 demands, even states that are traditional U.S. partners could conclude that signing any deals with the United States is a fool69传媒檚 errand because, eventually, Trump will issue even stronger demands in the future.
Trump69传媒檚 tactics are working right now. The question is whether he is cognizant of the risks.
